In the first four months, the economic operation indicators of the machinery industry were generally stable

Since this year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has continued the trend of stabilizing in the fourth quarter of last year, and the overall operation index is better than that of the national industry and the same period of last year. From January to April 2016, the growth rate of added value of the machinery industry was lower than that of the national industry in the previous year and higher than the average growth rate of the national industry again.
Higher than the national average industrial growth rate
The main economic indicators of the machinery industry are better than the national industry and better than the industrial added value of the same period last year: from January to April, the national industrial added value increased by 5.8%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.6%, and the added value of the machinery industry increased by 7.3%. The growth of the machinery industry was 1.5 and 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the industry and manufacturing respectively in the same period. At the same time, it was 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year's machinery industry (5.8%). The growth rate of added value was lower than the national average level of industry last year and higher than the national average.
From January to April, the main business income of the machinery industry was 7164.999 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.63%, 3.35 percentage points higher than that of the national industry (2.28%) in the same period; It was 1.73 percentage points higher than the growth rate of machinery industry in the same period of last year (3.9%).
From January to April, the total profit of the machinery industry was 464.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, 0.16 percentage points higher than that of the national industry (6.52%) in the same period; It was 5.53 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the machinery industry in the same period of last year (0.83%).
From the trend, the cumulative growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry increased month by month, and the growth rate fell back in the current month. The growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry from January to March was 0.7 percentage points higher than that from January to February; From January to April, it was 0.2 percentage points higher than that from January to March. The added value of machinery industry in April increased by 7.3% year on year, 0.8 percentage points lower than that in March (8.1%).
Half of the output of major products fell year-on-year
Among the 119 major product outputs monitored by the machinery industry, 58 product varieties increased year-on-year from January to April, accounting for 48.74%, 61 product varieties decreased year-on-year, accounting for 51.26%, and only 16 products increased by double-digit. Although the number of product varieties increased year on year did not exceed half, the number of product varieties increased month by month. The difference between products is obvious, and the differentiation continues.
Among the 10 agricultural machinery products in the key statistics, 7 declined year on year, and the output growth of large tractors and harvesting machinery with good growth last year fell back. From January to April, large tractors only increased by 2.11% year on year, down 15.03% year on year in that month, and harvesting machinery decreased by 11.83% and 8.58% respectively in that month and cumulatively. The year-on-year growth of medium-sized tractors turned to a year-on-year decline, while that of small tractors continued to show a year-on-year decline on the basis of the year-on-year decline of small tractors in the current month and the cumulative decline of small tractors in the previous year. The special equipment for feed production decreased year on year and achieved double-digit growth from January to April this year.
In March, the investment in real estate and infrastructure increased slightly. At the same time, after several consecutive years of decline, the decline in the output of construction machinery products narrowed this year.
Driven by the electrical and electrical industry, electrical instruments and meters continued to grow from January to April this year, with a year-on-year growth of 35.37% and 21.69% respectively, on the basis of the double-digit growth of the previous year; Automobile instruments and meters fell significantly. The cumulative growth rate in the first four months showed a double-digit decline. In January April, the monthly and cumulative year-on-year growth rates decreased by 11.8% and 18.33% respectively.
The main product cameras, including digital cameras, continued to decline. Copiers and offset printing equipment declined month by month, with year-on-year growth from each month of the previous year, and declined in the first four months of this year.
The petrochemical general machinery industry was affected by the fluctuation of oil price last year, and the output growth was not ideal. In the output of main products from January to April this year, the decline of petrochemical products and petroleum drilling equipment is still large, with a double-digit decline. However, a large number of fans, pumps and valves with a wide range have all achieved growth, among which the number of pumps and fans has changed from a year-on-year decline to a year-on-year growth.
Four of the five products in the heavy mining machinery industry that were monitored were down year on year. Metal smelting equipment decreased by 13.7% and 21.44% respectively in the month and cumulatively, and the decline continued to deepen; The decrease of cranes has narrowed, the decrease of metal rolling equipment has continued to narrow compared with the second half of last year, the low level of conveying machinery has dropped, and the special equipment for mining has increased by 8.35% year on year.
From January to April, the main products of machine tools showed a year-on-year downward trend, which generally continued the downward trend in the fourth quarter of last year.
Among the 26 major products of electrical appliances, there is an obvious difference between the increase and decrease of products. Among them, the output of 15 products increased year on year, especially those related to power transmission and transformation, with 15.65% year-on-year growth in power capacitors, 7.55% year-on-year growth in high-voltage switchboards, and 9.35% year-on-year growth in high-voltage switchgear; On the contrary, except for wind power generation, the growth of power generation equipment products is generally sluggish. The number of generator units dropped by two digits from January to April on a year-on-year basis, and the number of transformers and mutual inductors related to this dropped year on year. In addition, power cables, optical cables, lead-acid batteries, industrial boilers, etc. have maintained rapid growth.
In the general basic parts industry, the rolling bearing grew at a low speed last year, but declined at a low speed this year, and fell by 3.48% year-on-year from January to April; The hydraulic components decreased year on year in each month of last year, and the growth accelerated significantly in April this year, with a year-on-year growth of 12.92%; The mold decreased by less than 10% year on year in each month of last year. The growth in January to April this year was remarkable, with a year-on-year growth of 14.26%. The year-on-year growth in January to February was faster, with a year-on-year growth of 35%.
The benefit of the machinery industry has improved
The difference in profit growth of the machinery industry is obvious, and the driving role of automobiles, electrical appliances and electricians is prominent. From January to April, the total profit of the machinery industry was 464.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, higher than the national industry and the average level of the machinery industry in the same period of last year. The auto industry achieved a total profit of 204.472 billion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, with a new profit of 14.061 billion yuan, accounting for 50.68% of the new profit of the machinery industry in the same period, driving the profit of the machinery industry to increase by 3.22 percentage points.
The second is the electrical and electrical industry. From January to April, the electrical and electrical industry achieved a profit of 92.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, with a new profit of 13.022 billion yuan, accounting for 46.93% of the new profit of the machinery industry, driving the profit of the machinery industry to increase by 2.98 percentage points.
The total newly increased profits of the automobile, electrical and electrical industries totaled 27.083 billion yuan, accounting for 97.61% of the newly increased profits of the machinery industry of 27.746 billion yuan, and driving the profit growth of the machinery industry by 6.22 percentage points.
From January to April, the profits of six industries declined year on year: the internal combustion engine industry declined 4.31% year on year, the construction machinery industry declined 23.68% year on year, the petrochemical general machinery industry declined 0.81% year on year, the heavy machinery industry declined 6.59% year on year, the machine tool industry declined 0.55% year on year, and the food packaging machinery industry declined 10.86% year on year.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society increased by 10.5% from January to April, and the investment in machinery industry increased by 9.25%. The machinery industry was 1.25 percentage points lower than the national industry, but 3.25 percentage points higher than the manufacturing industry (6%). The investment in April was 389.56 billion yuan, up 1.32% year on year, 4.25 percentage points lower than the same period of last year (5.57%). The growth rate of investment in machinery industry in the first three months of 2016 was higher than that in the same period of last year, but still at a low level.
The investment growth rate of various industries in the machinery industry is obviously differentiated. The agricultural machinery, internal combustion engine and heavy machinery industries declined year on year; The industries that achieve single digit growth include instrument, petrochemical general machinery, machine tools and other industries; Industries achieving double-digit growth include: automobile, engineering machinery, electrical appliances, cultural office, food packaging machinery industry. The cultural office industry increased by 28.97% year on year, and the food packaging machinery industry increased by 29.43% year on year.
It is understood that the cumulative order amount of key enterprises increased from negative to positive year-on-year. Although the problem of insufficient orders has improved, compared with the year with the highest output, the problem of insufficient capacity utilization still exists.
From January to April, the total import and export, export and import of machinery industry accounted for about 18% of the country's total. From January to April 2016, the total import and export of the machinery industry was USD 198.497 billion, down 8.95% year on year, including USD 81.812 billion for import, down 10.6% year on year, and USD 116.685 billion for export, down 7.75% year on year. It is noteworthy that the private enterprises whose exports accounted for 40% of the whole industry last year showed a negative growth in both imports and exports from January to April this year. In particular, the export growth rate has changed from a year-on-year growth of 8.8% to a year-on-year decline of 1.03% from January to April this year; The export of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, the major export provinces, decreased by 5.46%, 5.5% and 5.84% respectively year on year, which put great pressure on the export of machinery industry.
The development trend is getting better
The development of the machinery industry in 2016 has three positive factors: first, the macro policy environment is conducive to promoting structural adjustment of the industry. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference defined the economic policy keynote of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasized the main tasks of "cutting production capacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing costs, reinforcing weaknesses, and improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system", and released the information of maintaining the continuity and stability of macro policies, which is conducive to promoting structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry. Second, the state has introduced a series of favorable policies for the industry.
The relevant supporting policies of Made in China 2025 have been issued successively, pointing out the direction and providing policy support for the short-term adjustment and long-term development of the machinery industry. Third, under the leadership of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, CMU is paying close attention to the study of policy measures and suggestions for stable growth, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency increase of the machinery industry, striving to make efforts from both sides of supply and demand, promote application, promote innovation, remedy weaknesses, adjust structure, consolidate the foundation, optimize the environment and increase efficiency, so as to provide a good policy environment for the development of the machinery industry and boost the confidence and determination of the whole industry.
At the same time, the industry development in 2016 is also facing challenges: First, the economic environment is still under downward pressure. Although the domestic economic trend is generally stable, downward pressure still exists. As the economic operation of the machinery industry lags behind the overall economic operation, it is difficult to significantly improve the weak domestic demand market of machinery products in the short term. Second, the pressure of sluggish global trade growth. The international economy is still in a period of deep adjustment after the financial crisis. The economic development prospects of major developed economies and emerging economies are still unclear, and global trade growth is sluggish. Therefore, the export situation of the machinery industry is difficult to improve significantly in the short term.
Based on comprehensive analysis, it is expected that 2016 will continue the low and stable trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The growth of the machinery industry will continue to be better than that of industry and better than that of the same period of last year. The export growth is expected to pick up and improve, while the decline will narrow.